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In their 10th forecast report, UP scientists dive into recent data on COVID-19 cases in the country, especially in the NCR and Cebu province, and show that while the pandemic is still spreading, the situation is still manageable. Given the clearer picture of the pandemic, they offer strategic options for the national government going forward.

Figure 1. Aggregate number of Covid-19 cases in NCR (red), numbering 7,736 as of May 25, 2020. Also shown are Covid-19 cases in NCR for validation (blue), currently at 1,498.

A group of researchers from the University of the Philippines publishes its eight forecast report on May 26, 2020, and recommends that the national government continue the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in NCR and consider the same in other high-risk areas.

The forecast report states that reproduction number R of NCR, which is oscillating at around 1.0 rather than showing a discernible decrease is a sign that it might be premature to relax the MECQ to GCQ. Given that the data received from DOH appears to have a lag, NCR remains a high-risk area.

A UPLB scientist and member of the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team breaks down the epidemic wave of COVID-19 that swept over the country, and at what point can we say that we have reached the peak of that wave. Read more here.

As community quarantine measures are relaxed, more economic activities are being allowed at varying levels of capacity. In their Policy Note No. 7, the UP COVID-19 Response Team presents findings from their risk assessment of various job types, including proper phasing in of different jobs and manageable interventions to lessen the health risks at work.


In this Forecast Report No. 7, UP experts cite data analyses to show that the past enhanced community quarantine worked to reduce transmission and deaths due to COVID-19. However, in certain areas of the country, the risk level of the pandemic is still high. Read about the recommendations of UP scientists regarding the continuation of quarantine measures in some areas and the loosening of restrictions in others.

POLICY NOTE NO. 6 / 08 May 2020 Prevailing Data Issues in the Time of COVID-19 and the Need for Open Data

In this Policy Note, the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team recognizes the crucial need for accurate and relevant data about COVID-19 and the country’s resources in order to win the battle against an invisible enemy, and how to address the gaps in data-sharing and collection as soon as possible.

Continuing from Policy Note No. 1 (//www.pighu.com/modified-community-quarantine-public-health-framework-in-reponse-to-covid-19-for-iloilo-and-western-visayas-after-april-30-data-analysis-and-recommendations/) and analyzing the updated number of cases, local incidence and public health data, this Policy Note No. 2 offers some recommendations for measures to keep the COVID-19 infection rates controlled and in decline in Western Visayas.

The novel coronavirus spreads through social interaction. The UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response looks into the post-ECQ scenarios and how can we ease up restrictions on people’s mobility to minimize transmission and risks to our highly vulnerable seniors.